2030 Census: Census Bureau Needs Additional Data to Inform Design Decisions

Fast Facts

6/4/26 – The U.S. Census Bureau is sending workers door-to-door as part of the 2026 Census Test. During these tests, workers evaluate methods, technology, and procedures for the 2030 Census.

The Bureau plans to test new ways to collect data, such as using U.S. Postal Service staff to count people in person. But after a Department of Commerce review, the Bureau reduced the scope of the 2026 test. The test plans now include fewer sites and fewer data collection innovations.

These changes increase the risk that the Bureau will make final design decisions for the 2030 Census without accurate information. We recommended the Bureau address this and more.

What GAO Found

The U.S. Census Bureau’s 2026 Census Test will not produce data on the viability of certain proposed 2030 Census design features as originally envisioned. The Bureau reduced the scope of the 2026 test in two ways. First, it reduced the number of test locations from six to two. Second, it reduced or eliminated 10 of 19 operational activities that the Bureau originally had planned to test for viability. These activities include, for example, changing how the Bureau uses administrative data to enumerate certain households and providing an internet self-response option for residents of university halls. As a result of the Department of Commerce’s review of the 2026 Test, the Bureau determined that the 2026 Test would focus on two key priorities, according to agency officials: (1) piloting in-field enumeration by U.S. Postal Service (USPS) staff, and (2) enhancements and innovations to field infrastructure, staffing, and training.

GAO’s prior work identified evidence-based policymaking practices, including that agencies should build a portfolio of high-quality, credible sources of evidence to support decision-making. As a result of the narrowed scope and other changes to the 2026 Test, there is a risk that the Bureau will not collect information on the efficacy of certain design features before it finalizes the Census design. Consequently, the Bureau could experience cost and quality challenges in managing the 2030 Census. Not having evidence to inform decisions may also harm congressional and public confidence in the Census.

The figure below displays the four canceled 2026 Test sites and two remaining sites—Huntsville, Alabama, and Spartanburg, South Carolina. The Bureau scaled down the 2026 Test in part to focus on piloting the use of USPS staff for in-field enumeration at the two remaining locations. The Bureau also changed the questionnaire to ask more questions, including on citizenship status, from respondents. In addition, the Bureau previously called for Spanish and Chinese language versions of the questionnaire but approved an English-only language version.

 

 

The Bureau has agency-wide skills gaps that could affect mission-critical areas such as modern IT engineering and cybersecurity but has not completed an agency-wide workforce assessment that would be needed to identify and address any additional gaps. A key principle for effective strategic workforce planning is to develop strategies that are tailored to address gaps in number, deployment, and alignment of human capital approaches for enabling and sustaining the contributions of all critical skills and competencies. Given the statutory deadline for tabulating census results, the Bureau must have sufficient staff with the right skill sets in place to manage an effective enumeration. As of February 2026, though, Bureau officials said the agency-wide workforce assessment is paused until the Bureau establishes roles for employees participating in the assessment, which may be delayed until the agency completes a broader reorganization effort (slated for fiscal year 2027). Such a timeline would create challenges to addressing skills gaps in time to effectively manage the 2030 Census. Moreover, without better understanding its workforce needs, whether through an agencywide workforce assessment or other means, the Bureau may not be addressing existing skills gaps through actions it is currently taking.

Why GAO Did This Study

The Constitution mandates the recurring conduct of a census for purposes of apportioning political representation among the states, which is carried out by the Bureau and provides vital data for the nation. GAO was asked to report on a range of topics related to preparations for the 2030 Census. The Bureau is implementing the 2026 Test as the first of two major field tests planned to help the agency examine new methods, processes, and approaches to the census. The stated purpose of the 2026 Test is to assess the viability of new or revised design elements for the 2030 Census.

This is the first of a series of products reporting on the status of preparations, planning decisions, and testing for the 2030 Census, as well as emerging challenges that could affect the Bureau’s approach for the 2030 Census.

GAO reviewed operational and staffing plans for the 2026 Test and 2030 Census, and data on Bureau-wide personnel actions for 2025. GAO also interviewed Bureau officials and sought a rationale from Commerce regarding changes made to the focus of the 2026 Test. As of May 2026, Commerce has yet to respond.

Recommendations

GAO recommends that the Secretary of Commerce instruct the Director of the U.S. Census Bureau to (1) research and test the operational activities and design features removed from the 2026 Census Test prior to finalizing its design of the 2030 Census, and (2) determine decennial census workforce needs so that the Bureau may address skills gaps in time to effectively manage the 2030 Census. Commerce agreed with both recommendations.

Recommendations for Executive Action

Agency Affected Recommendation Status
Department of Commerce The Secretary of Commerce should instruct the Director of the U.S. Census Bureau to research and test the operational activities and design features removed from the 2026 Census Test prior to finalizing its design of the 2030 Census. (Recommendation 1)
 

Open
When we confirm what actions the agency has taken in response to this recommendation, we will provide updated information.
Department of Commerce The Secretary of Commerce should instruct the Director of the U.S. Census Bureau to determine decennial workforce needs so the Bureau may address skills gaps in time to effectively manage the 2030 Census. (Recommendation 2)
 

Open
When we confirm what actions the agency has taken in response to this recommendation, we will provide updated information.

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